By Dr Paul Martin

Starting in January, I will be leading a new research project funded by the Nuffield Foundation which will seek to understand the consequences of undertaking paid employment as a full-time student.

Alongside my colleague Professor Claire Crawford, we will investigate this issue by making use of the Department for Education’s Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) dataset, which links together the education and employment records of millions of individuals in England. By using LEO we can paint the most comprehensive picture so far of student employment, supplementing the many survey-based research studies in this area.

There are several reasons why we might be concerned about the relationship between full-time study and paid employment (or perhaps the lack thereof). I will set the scene here by considering the three issues of too much employment, too little employment and employment as a driver of intergenerational inequalities.

1. Are students undertaking too much paid employment?

In recent years, students have found themselves in the middle of a perfect storm when it comes to their personal finances. High levels of inflation have pushed up the cost of living, and levels of student financial support have not kept pace. Between 2022 and 2024, students in England had to contend with a 10% real terms cut in the value of maintenance loans, which tend to be one of their main sources of income. Alongside this, parental income thresholds which determine the level of support that students receive through their loans have remained frozen ever since the 2007/08 academic year – one of the most egregious of all examples of fiscal drag. Meanwhile, the ‘bank of Mum and Dad’ may not have been doling out cash with quite the same enthusiasm as in years gone by, as parents and carers themselves grapple with cost-of-living challenges.

This cocktail of different financial pressures has led to an increase in the amount of paid employment that students are undertaking. A recent survey of approximately 2,000 students found that around half of students say that they have financial difficulties and 30% of respondents said that they were increasing their working hours as a result of the rising cost of living. Similarly, recent polling has found that many students are prioritising paid work over lectures and seminars and, of those who say they plan to drop out of university, 82% say that this is either partly or entirely due to financial difficulties.

Whilst the timeframe of the data we will use in the project predates the recent cost of living crisis, we will establish in principle the extent to which certain patterns of paid employment may be associated with different negative outcomes for students, paving the way for similar analyses to be repeated with more recent cohorts of data as they become available.

2. Are some students actually undertaking too little paid employment?

Whilst excessive work among students is clearly a concern, we will also seek to explore through this research what the optimal level of employment for students could be. There is every possibility that it may not be zero. Understanding what is optimal will go beyond consideration of just the quantity of employment to also consider the type (such as sector of work) and timing of employment during the year.

Even the most assiduous of undergraduate students, who diligently completes 100 hours of study for every 10 credit module that they take during their course, ought still to have a fair bit of spare time on their hands over the course of a full calendar year. A typical student’s 1,200 hour annual study workload still falls well short of the typical 1,700 hour annual workload which would be experienced by a full-time worker who takes off bank holidays plus an additional five weeks of annual leave. As well as additional income, suitable part-time employment can provide students with the opportunity to further develop their soft skills, build their CVs and feel a sense of purpose which supports with their mental wellbeing. Existing survey data suggests that over 40% of undergraduate students undertake no paid employment whatsoever, even outside of term time. Given that our current HE system has several lengthy periods of inactivity baked into students’ annual schedules by default, we should consider how we might best support students to make the most of their time across the whole calendar year.

3. Do student employment inequalities hold back social mobility?

Ultimately, we hope that we can learn more in this project about the potential link between student employment behaviour and intergenerational inequalities. The link between socioeconomic background and the likelihood of accessing certain prestigious occupations is unquestionable, as illustrated by recent research showing the continued dominance of former private school students in the top professions. To what extent could this be driven partially by differential access to work experience opportunities during study? We will seek to identify particular career pathways where entry on to that pathway after graduation appears to be contingent upon gaining employment experience in that field whilst at university. For example, how many graduates working in fields such as finance, the law and the media have gained paid work experience in that field during their university years? Or to put it another way, just how difficult is it for a graduate to find a role in one of these competitive fields in the absence of any work experience?

Investigating the relationship between employment activity during study and access to competitive sectors after graduation is crucial if we want to better understand how to support more young people from disadvantaged backgrounds to use employment during study as a stepping stone to future career opportunities. We should also pay particular attention to the groups of students who appear to be consigned to long summers working in hospitality and retail positions in order to make ends meet, depriving them of the opportunity to get valuable experience (which may be unpaid) in their preferred industry.

Robbie Maris

In 2014, the government introduced the English and maths resit policy, known formally as “the condition of funding requirement”. The policy requires students to continue studying English and maths during their 16 to 19 upper-secondary education if they had not achieved a standard pass (grade 4 or above) in their GCSEs. This was, and is, a wide-reaching and well justified policy aimed at improving the life chances of all young people:

“Gaining level 2 skills in maths and English helps students realise their potential, and gives them the opportunity to progress in life, learning and work.” DfE (2025)

Hundreds of thousands of students have and continue to retake English and maths as part of the resit policy. Around a third of all 16-year-olds need to resit English or maths and many of these students come from disadvantaged backgrounds (free school meal – FSM – eligible over the previous six years). This makes the resit policy especially pertinent for the aim of improving social mobility and reducing educational inequalities. This is often one of the last chances within the formal education system for young people, disproportionately from disadvantaged backgrounds, to obtain vital literacy and numeracy skills.

However, the policy has been the subject of much debate and attention since it was introduced. It is currently a focal point in the ongoing Curriculum and Assessment Review  . Yet, despite the widespread nature of the policy and the importance of literacy and numeracy for life chances, there has been relatively little work examining the drivers of success of resits themselves.

To fill this gap, colleagues at the Education Policy Institute and I, with support from Pearson, examined inequalities in resit performance and the drivers of resit success, in our report  “English and Maths Resits: Drivers of Success”. We used a combination of quantitative and qualitative research, drawing on education administrative data and the findings from an expert roundtable made up of representatives from high-performing institutions, policymaking and industry bodies.

Significant attainment gaps across demographic characteristics

We found large achievement gaps in resits across gender, ethnicity and disadvantaged status (Figure 1). Disadvantaged students fall behind by a fifth of a grade in English and one eighth of a grade in maths compared with non-disadvantaged students. In terms of gender, female students achieve higher grades in English, whilst male students achieve higher grades in maths. After controlling for prior attainment and other characteristics, students with Special Education Needs and Disabilities (SEND) achieve similar grades to other students.

Figure 1. Relationship between demographic characteristics and resit attainment

Note: These results are from statistical models of resit students’ performance, where students’ best resit grade is predicted using their prior attainment, individual and institutional characteristics. We are presenting results for the 2021/22 cohort of resit students (who finished their 16 to 19 educations in 2023 or 2024) but the results look similar using earlier cohorts. Grades are equivalised using DfE’s point scores for English and maths progress.

Figure 2 shows that White British students have some of the lowest progress levels, along with those from Gypsy/Roma backgrounds (in English) and White and Black Caribbean students (in maths). Black – African students make the most progress in English resits whilst Indian students make the most progress in maths.

Figure 2. Relationship between ethnicity and resit attainment

Note: See Figure 1 note for further details on the modelling approach.

Prior attainment strongly predicts resit performance

We show that prior attainment in the subject being resat strongly predict resit outcomes, but so does performance in other Key Stage 4 GCSE subjects (Figure 3). For English, prior attainment across all other subjects is actually more predictive of resit performance than prior attainment in English. Conversely, in maths, prior attainment in maths is more predictive than prior performance in other subjects.

Despite the importance of prior attainment, evidence from top-performing institutions suggests that streaming students by grade is logistically complicated and, in some cases, had negative impacts on student engagement. One provider representative told us:

“Streaming – it was an absolute palaver. And actually, we didn’t get any improved outcomes from that.

It [streaming] just didn’t make enough of a difference for all of the rest of the palaver it caused us with attitudes, behaviours, attendance and all that sort of thing”

Figure 3. Relationship between prior attainment in English and wider KS4 subjects and resit outcomes

Note: See Figure 1 note for further details on the modelling approach.

Motivation, engagement and attendance are critical to resit outcomes

We find that unauthorised absences in year 11 have large negative associations with subsequent resit attainment (Figure 4), suggesting that the underlying drivers of absences pre-16 continue to be an issue post-16, with continued impacts on attainment. This reflects our discussion with providers, who suggest that student engagement and motivation is the pre-cursor to many attendance problems that colleges frequently face. The discussion covered the importance of putting a strong focus on building positive relationships between students and staff at the beginning of the resit journey.

Figure 4. Relationship between absences in year 11 and resit attainment during 16 to 19 education.

Note: See Figure 1 note for further details on the modelling approach.

Enrolling on a GCSEs after the transition to post-16 education results in better overall resit performance than enrolling on the alternatives

The resit policy allows students to be enrolled on a GCSE, level 2 functional skills qualification (FSQ) or a stepping stone qualification (usually a level 1 or entry level FSQ). Students who achieve a grade 3 (closest grade to the passing threshold) must study a GCSE. We find that students who initially enrol on a GCSE achieve better progress over their 16 to 19 study than students on level 2 Functional Skills Qualifications (FSQs) or stepping stone qualifications, by almost half a grade (Figure 5 – this is conditional on prior attainment). Whilst this finding may be due to selection effects (those more likely to perform well are more likely to take the GCSE), this also reflects the experience of providers. Evidence from top-performing providers suggests that GCSEs were preferred for their ability to demonstrate progress to students, as opposed to the binary pass or fail nature of FSQs. GCSEs were also preferred over FSQs for their reputation in the sector and recognition by a wide range of stakeholders.

Figure 5. Relationship between GCSE resit subject enrolment and resit grades (conditional on prior attainment)

Note: See Figure 1 note for further details on the modelling approach.

Resit students often have negative experiences with English and maths

Our discussions with top-performing providers suggested that many students enter 16 to 19 education feeling demotivated and bring negative experiences with English or maths or both. Staff are often dealing with anxiety, fear of failure and low levels of confidence and self-efficacy that stem from experiences in earlier schooling. There were suggestions that more needs to be done in schools to get these students into a more positive mindset for their 16 to 19 education. This includes getting students into a progress mindset, as one provider representative outlined:

“We really value and try to celebrate progress, but a lot of the challenge is the language that comes from school… they come to us with the belief that that nothing except a Grade 4 is acceptable.”

“I just feel like I’m banging my head against a bit of a brick wall with that because it’s built into their educational beliefs, so they believe they are consistently failing, even though we’re banging the drum of progress.”

A selective approach to November resit delivers better overall attainment

Providers can choose to enter students into the November (Winter) exam series immediately after they start their 16 to 19 education (this is in addition to, or instead of, entering students for the typical Summer exam series). Our findings show that while November resits can be beneficial for the individual level (Figure 6), they appear to harm overall resit attainment when institutions use them more liberally e.g. when all students are entered. That is, a provider that enters a greater proportion of students onto November resits (given a set of student characteristics) ends up with a lower average progress score, or around a quarter of a GCSE grade.

Figure 6. Relationship between individual November resits (left) and provider-wide proportion of students on November resits (right) and attainment

Note: See Figure 1 note for further details on the modelling approach.

This finding reflects our discussions with top-performing institutions, who were all selective in their use of November resits. A key challenge that was identified with November resits is the large drop in student engagement following the November resit cycle (see the quote from a college representative below).

“We have actually lower results in the summer following failure at November resits because they switch off, they think they’ve done, we lose all of that teaching time, which is the bulk of our teaching time, and it’s just caused too many problems.”

The North-West is the strongest performing region

There is a cluster of top-performing institutions in the North-West of England (Figure 7). In maths, students in the North West make 0.10 more grades progress than the average, whilst in English they make 0.11 more grades. The lowest performing region in English is the South West (0.10 grades less than average), and in maths it is Yorkshire and the Humber (0.06 grades less progress). There is clearly more that could be learned from the North West, who are the best performing region in both English and maths.

Figure 7. Average institutional value-added by region for English and maths.

Note: See Figure 1 note for further details on the modelling approach.

Staff strongly value networks which allow for knowledge sharing, but need more CPD for English

Evidence from our discussion with top-performing providers suggested resit teachers are often highly motivated and have a strong desire to learn and support their students in making progress with English and maths. They also strongly value networks where they can share best practice, build relationships and share their experiences. This quote is from a provider representative from the North West, the top-performing region:

“In [the North West] we’ve built a network … we’re probably about 15 colleges strong now where we regularly, and it really is quite regularly now, meet and it has been the best CPD for myself [sic] with other managers, but also for the staff too. There’s so much engagement in that, and there’s such a buzz in it.”

However, roundtable participants also argued that there should be more evidence-based CPD on how to support learners with negative experiences of education. There is also a perceived need to increase the amount of CPD for English. While CPD for maths is very good and accessible, good CPD for English remains relatively scarce according to some providers.

Conclusion

Our young people deserve the best possible start to their adult life and the resit policy is designed with this goal in mind. Its potential benefits to secure fundamental numeracy and literacy skills are clear, but so is the potential damage to motivation for students who feel they are stuck on the resit treadmill. Our analysis shows that that there is plenty of room for improvement within the current policy, setting out recommendations for policymakers, providers and researchers.

We argue that there needs to be more focus on the widening attainment gaps in the 16 to 19 phase and reiterate calls for a 16 to 19 student premium to help those most disadvantaged. We also argue that there is a need for further investment in developing and expanding CPD and professional networks for English and maths resit teachers.

At the provider level, adopting selective approaches to November resits, entering students onto GCSEs, and focussing on early relationship building with students have the potential to improve results significantly. Our qualitative findings also suggested that embedding English and maths staff within subject area departments can be a highly effective approach for increasing engagement with English and maths across the institution.

Beyond these organisational factors, student engagement remains one of the biggest challenges for providers. Future research should consider the key drivers of student motivation and engagement for resits and test potential interventions.

Robbie Maris is a doctoral student supervised by Professors Gill Wyness and Jake Anders at UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities, as part of a co-funded UBEL DTP Studentship with the Education Policy Institute, with whom he conducted this research.

By Jake Anders, Lindsey Macmillan, Gill Wyness

 

Today’s level 3 results show a continuing post-pandemic ‘bounce back’, with A level grades largely improved since 2019 (i.e., before the pandemic) and since 2023 (which was the first year of ‘normal’ grading standards since the pandemic). The group of young people receiving their level 3 qualifications today were about half-way through year 9 when schools closed in March 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and were in the first year of their GCSE studies (year 10) in January 2021 during the second round of all-school closures. While they took their GCSEs under normal exam conditions, their results were adjusted according to the ‘glide path’ in 2022, with results adjusted to reflect the generous teacher assessed grades of 2021 and centre assessed grades of 2020.

A level performance by school type and region

First, looking by centre type, focusing on academies, independent schools, grammar schools and FE colleges (which the majority of pupils attend when sitting their level 3 qualifications), Figure 1 shows that, with the exception of further education (FE) colleges, the proportion of pupils achieving an A or higher at A level has increased across the board since last year, and since 2019. However, independent school pupils continue to be far more likely to achieve an A grade or higher than their state school pupil counterparts, and the gap between independent schools and academies has widened by 0.9 points between 2023 and 2024. Now, almost 50% of independent school pupils achieve at least an A at A-level, versus just 26.5% of those in academies – there is much work to do.

Also of concern are the results for those in FE – comprising typically more disadvantaged pupils. Despite their results improving somewhat since last year, they remain below pre-pandemic levels, with only 14.8% of A level entrants achieving at least an A this year. This is consistent with the evidence that those from disadvantaged backgrounds faced more disruption to their education during the pandemic.

Figure 1: A level results by school type

In previous years we’ve seen large disparities in A level grades across the country. Figure 2 shows results by region over time, again depicting substantial bounce-backs since last year, although clearly some regions have recovered faster than others. Pupils in London and the South East continue to be the highest achievers, with around 31% of pupils achieving top A level grades, but London in particular appears to be pulling away, with the biggest improvement among the regions since 2019. Meanwhile pupils in the East Midlands, the South West, and the East of England have seen their results largely flatline. Last year’s lowest performing region along this metric, the North East, has seen a large kick up in proportions achieving an A or above this year, which moves the region above the East Midlands.

Figure 2: A level results by region

T level expansion

Beyond A levels, it is somewhat more difficult to compare the results of other types of Level 3 qualifications over time. Figure 3 depicts the story for T levels, the relatively new technical-level qualification, which are broadly equivalent to 3 A levels, but provide a more “vocational” route for students. Having been developed in conjunction with employers. T-levels were launched in 2020, and 2023 was the first year where these qualifications were based fully on formal assessments. However, as they are relatively new qualifications, there are changes in the composition of students taking T Levels, and the types of T levels students are taking, meaning comparisons over time must be treated with caution.

As Figure 3 shows, the proportion of students achieving a ‘merit’ or above in their T-level has fallen by 10 percentage points since last year, with 62% of T-level students now achieving this grade. There are also marked inequalities by gender, with females being far more likely to achieve a merit than males.

Figure 3: T level results by gender

 

Note that this may reflect the different subjects taken by males and females. As Figure 4 shows, T levels are extremely gendered, with many of the subjects on offer being studied either mostly by males (e.g., Building Services Engineering, Onsite Construction and Digital Production, Design and Development – where over 90% of students are male), or mostly by females (e.g., Health and Education and Early Years – where over 90% of students are female).  Indeed, Figure 4 highlights that there are currently many more options available currently for male-dominated subjects compared to A levels (Figure 5) which offer a more balanced mix of male- and female-dominated subjects.

 

Figure 4: % of males and females doing T levels, by subject

 

Figure 5: % males and females doing A levels, by subject

 

In all then, today’s results will be good news for many pupils, as results seem to have recovered since the pandemic related disruption. But they continue to paint a stark picture of educational inequality by school type, region, and gender. There is still a great deal of work to be done to reduce these inequalities in attainment and in qualifications offered.

 

By Richard Murphy and Gill Wyness

Of all the priorities the incoming government may have on 5^th July, England’s higher education sector is likely to be low on the list. But this may be short sighted – our once world leading HE system has become increasingly fragile over the last decade, with both students and universities suffering from real financial hardship. This is in stark contrast to 2012 where the controversial tripling of tuition fees (to £9,000 per year) put universities in their strongest financial position in decades, and the income-contingent loan system meant students from any income background could attend university. So what has happened?

Myself and colleagues evaluated the series of reforms which took us from zero tuition fees to the highest average tuition fees in the world by 2012.  (“The end of free college in England”). We evaluated these reforms in terms of: enrolments, equity of access and funding per student. We showed that enrolments had held up in the face of the significant fee increase, and the large participation gap that existed under free tuition marginally decreased, and the funding per head reached a 20 year high. The success of the system (by these measures at least) came down to i) the higher tuition fees injecting more cash into the system and allowing universities to expand, and ii) the well-designed income contingent loans system, which ensured that no student had to pay upfront fees, and had enough money to live on. The reformed system of 2012 protected against key market failures – credit constraints, risk and uncertainty and debt aversion – an economists’ dream.

So where did it all go wrong?

In short, with the governments’ decision not to index-link tuition fees and maintenance loans (along with the removal of maintenance grants). The tuition fee cap has only been allowed to increase once since 2012,  by £250 . Tuition fees are now worth around 20% less than they were in 2012 (Ogden and Waltman, 2023). This is disastrous for universities, which rely on fees as a key component of their income.  Things have been tough for students too – maintenance loans have increased over time, but have not kept up with the UK’s high rate of inflation over the last few years.

In the light of these issues, my co-author Richard Murphy and I decided to revisit today’s system, in terms of our three key measures of success – enrolments, equity of access and university funding.

Enrolments have continued to grow

For our first measure of success is easy to measure – have student numbers continued to grow since 2012? Here, there is good news. As figure 1 shows, enrolments have continued to increase at a steady pace since the 1990s, with a COVID-19 bump in 2020, due to more students receiving their required grades.

Figure 1: Student enrolments: number of full-time equivalent undergraduate students at UK HEIs

Notes: series break in 2000 due to change in sources. Source: 1994-2002, figures compiled by V. Carpentier. 2001-2021, Higher Education Information Database for Institutions (HEIDI)

Equity under threat as the value of maintenance loans decline

But have these increases in enrolment come from all sectors of society? Figure 2 shows the gap in participation between students from high and low SES backgrounds, Since 2005 there has been a slow general closing of the SES gap in enrolments between high and low SES students which has continued post 2012 (though it’s worth pointing out that the POLAR4 measure of SES used here has been criticised in the past – other measures are tricky to access but may show a different story). The exceptions are the 2011 and 2020/21 blips. The former likely caused by fewer SES taking gap years in order to enter under the lower fee scheme, and the latter the COVID-19 bump.

This general reduction in inequality is potentially surprising, given the deterioration in financial conditions experienced by lower income groups in recent years. Figure 3 shows the amount of money students from different income background have to live on while studying during each of the reforms.  Since 2012, there has been little improvement in liquidity. An increase of about £1,000 per year in real terms for the poorest students, between 2012 and 2016 (as well as a gradual increase between 2016-2020), has now been eroded entirely by inflation, so that the maximum maintenance loan is now worth less, in real terms, than it did in 2016.

Figure 2: Higher education enrolment gap, POLAR 4 measure of deprivation

Source: UCAS End of cycle report, 2023

 

Figure 3: Net liquidity (grants+maintenance loans-upfront fees) by parental income for different fee regimes

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Student Loans Company, 1991–2024. Figures expressed as amounts per year.

Funding per head hit hard as tuition fees frozen

Before 2012, a significant proportion of university funding came through the government teaching grant, with a smaller proportion from tuition fees. The 2012 reforms were designed in part to shift the burden of payment towards graduates. This was seen as preferable to relying on government to fund the system, which is invariably low-priority in times of austerity (Murphy et al, 2022).

Figure 4 plots university funding per full-time equivalent student, both for ‘domestic’ undergraduate students and all student types –postgraduate, undergraduate, UK, EU and overseas students (who typically pay higher fees).  The funding per head for domestic undergraduates is closely tied with the tuition fee increases.  Real funding per head spiked in 2012 then stabilised. But in recent years, funding per head has declined and now stands at the 2011 level.

By contrast, overall funding from all student types has not suffered the same decline. This reflects universities attempts to protect their balance sheets with income from students whose fees are unregulated – predominantly international students. Analysis from the IFS (Drayton et al, 2023) reports that in the 2021–22 financial year, tuition fees from non-UK students accounted for 42% of higher education course fees and 21% of all income for universities in England. Any reductions in the numbers of international students will translate into lower funding per head of domestic students.

Figure 4: Average funding per full-time equivalent student

Sources: Funding from all sources – statistics for 2000–2002 are taken from Carpentier (2004) and statistics for 2002–2021 taken from Higher Education Information Database for Institutions. These figures are not available for 2015,2016,2017.  FTE enrolments used in the computation contain all student types (full-time, part-time, postgraduate, undergraduate, UK, EU, overseas); funding per head is for all students and comprises teaching grants and tuition fee income (the latter for all student types listed above). Funding from domestic students taken from IFS (2023)– total up-front public resources provided for teaching. This is effectively tuition fees for domestic students (minus any fee discounts) plus teaching grants. Figures expressed as funding per student per year. All figures expressed in constant 2023 pounds sterling.

An increasingly fragile sector

The governments decision to freeze domestic tuition fees – apart from the 2017 increase of £250 – as well as its failure to protect the real-term value of maintenance loans is perhaps not surprising. Tuition fees (and student loans) are perennially unpopular with voters (though less so when they are shown how much fee abolition would cost the taxpayer – as a recent Public First report showed) and no government wishes to risk the wrath of the middle-classes by putting them up during a cost of living crisis.  But freezing university and students’ incomes is a policy decision as much as increasing them is, and it comes at a cost.

So far, the sector seems to have coped. Enrolments have held up, access to HE has continued to gradually improve , and university funding per head is still above 2012 levels.  However, this masks an increasingly worrying picture. Funding for domestic students is in serious decline, meaning that universities are more and more reliant on international students to keep themselves afloat. Whether this is likely to be sustainable for much longer is debatable, as the impact of student visa restrictions is felt. Meanwhile, students themselves are increasingly squeezed by falls in their income from maintenance loans.

So what can be done? The obvious solution would be to immediately reverse the erosion of tuition fees and maintenance loans in real terms (and to index link fees and finance going forward). This would amount to an increase of around £2000 per year in tuition fees for home students (Ogden and Waltmann, 2023) – likely to be extremely politically unpalatable for a new government and its already cash-strapped electorate. The major party manifestos have offered little detail on how they might tackle the crisis. The Conservatives plan to keep the 2022 finance regime in place, the Liberal Democrats propose to hold a review and Labour acknowledge the issues stating ‘The current higher education funding settlement does not work for the taxpayer, universities, staff, or students,’ suggesting a review is on the cards.

But action is urgently needed to prevent universities – especially those with less access to lucrative foreign students – from going under. Given the strength of our university sector, let’s hope the new government acts before it’s too late.

Claire Crawford

The manifestos are out and the general election is looming. We at CEPEO, as the name suggests, are particularly interested in education policy and equalising opportunities. So, what did the manifestos actually tell us about potential plans in these areas? We focus here on plans set out by the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties.

While the details differed, there were some agreed areas of importance across the parties: the need to recruit, train and retain high quality teachers; to do more to support children with special educational needs; and to incentivise more adult learning. These issues would probably appear quite high up most lists of pressing issues likely to be facing the Department for Education over the next few years.

There was also an emphasis on support for disadvantaged students. The Conservatives highlighted £3bn of spending via the pupil premium – helpful, of course, but only so high because of the very large proportion of pupils eligible now – 25% as of January 2024. Some of this rise is driven by transitional arrangements for Universal Credit, but I’m sure we could all agree that it would be better for far fewer children to be experiencing low family income, even temporarily.

The Liberal Democrats promised to go further on this front by tripling the early years premium to bring it closer to the amount allocated to school children – and extending the pupil premium it to those aged 16-18 as well – both very welcome ambitions. There were no specific details on this issue in the Labour manifesto, but one of their five missions is to break down barriers to opportunity, so there may be more specific announcements to come if they are the ones in office come 5^th July.

There were also some clear omissions though. There was very little detail on what might be done to shore up HE funding. Labour and the Liberal Democrats were clear that ‘something’ should be done, but unclear what that would look like. Certainly no-one was brave enough to say that tuition fees might need to go up substantially. We can probably expect another independent review in the coming months to spell out the unappealing choices. The Lib Dems did commit to reintroducing maintenance grants, though, while the Conservatives re-emphasised their plan to close down “poor quality” degrees, which of course are challenging to identify and may disproportionately affect those from lower socio-economic backgrounds, as we have discussed previously.

In contrast to the strong focus on the importance of high-quality staff for schools, there was also very little in the way of detail on a potential workforce strategy to help deliver the extended early education entitlements to children in working families from 9 months, which both the Conservatives and Labour have committed to delivering. The Conservatives are presumably relying on the market to deliver the places (and staff), incentivised by the higher funding rates they have committed to over the coming years. Labour are planning to re-use freed-up space in primary schools to deliver more places, but have not provided any specific details of their plans for the workforce.

While it is possible that providers will use some of the higher government funding to pay staff more, the market does not provide a strong incentive to invest in high quality staff – or in quality more generally. It is challenging for parents to identify setting quality (beyond Ofsted ratings) and many also weigh other considerations – such as availability and convenience – more highly when choosing a place for their child, suggesting that more will need to be done if we are serious about delivering high quality early education.

There is also a lot more that could be done to distribute this funding more equitably, as I spell out in this companion piece. And, of course, it would have been great to see consideration of some of our more ambitious policy priorities to equalise opportunities, including reforming school admissions, introducing a post-qualification admissions system and greater commitment to funding for further education (although credit to the Liberal Democrats for making an explicit commitment on this).

Of the three, the Liberal Democrat manifesto was the most ambitious in terms of the number and scope of specific policy ideas to equalise opportunities – but it certainly wasn’t radical. We must therefore hope that the next government is going to over-deliver on its manifesto commitments. For, as my colleagues so eloquently put it in a recent blog post, there can be no economic growth without education and skills. Ensuring that the benefits of this growth are distributed equitably starts with the education system. We here at CEPEO therefore hope that bolder action to equalise opportunities in education is just around the corner, whichever party is in power next month.

By Dr Paul Martin

Last week the Secretary of State for Education, Gillian Keegan, issued DfE’s annual guidance to the Office for Students (OfS) on strategic priorities grant funding, which includes centralised investments to widen access to higher education. Amongst this year’s announcements was a reduction in funding for the ‘Uni Connect’ programme – which is designed to support students from more disadvantaged backgrounds into higher education – by £10 million per annum.

This most recent reduction is the latest in a series of cuts which has reduced Uni Connect’s budget from £60 million in 2020 to just £20 million today, and represents the continuation of more than 20 years of dithering by governments of various political parties concerning the extent to which they should fund centralised widening participation (WP) outreach programmes. From the AimHigher initiative (which launched in 2004) through to Uni Connect today, governments never seem to have been able to agree on how much money to invest in these programmes or how long to fund them for. As observed in the recent Public First evaluation of Uni Connect, the constant uncertainly surrounding the programme has led to serious challenges when it comes to planning activity and retaining staff.

The lion’s share of outreach spending

These centralised programmes represent only a minority of the money spent on widening participation, though, with the majority spent by individual universities themselves.

From 2012 onwards, there was a considerable increase in the number of WP outreach activities delivered by universities themselves, with universities only able to charge the new maximum tuition fees of £9,000 per year if a proportion of fees above £6,000 were allocated to widening participation activities. Today, the situation is very similar – universities may only charge fees above £6,165 (up to a maximum of £9,250) if they have an ‘Access and Participation Plan’ in place which spells out how they will use their additional fee income to improve equality of opportunity. Figures reported by the OfS show that in 2022-23 England’s 198 HE providers pulled in more than £3.4 billion from fees above the basic level of £6,165 and that 25% of this higher fee income (or £859 million) was spent on ‘access and participation investment’ (including financial support for students). For initiatives that support ‘access’ in particular, an estimated £185 million was spent across the providers.

Good news and bad news

While not great news, therefore, a reduction of £10 million in the Uni Connect budget represents a relatively small reduction in our overall annual spend on WP access initiatives. Of greater concern is that we don’t really know whether we’re getting the most bang for our buck in terms of the way we use this relatively large pot of money to improve equality of opportunity.

For many years we have presided over something of a “good news and bad news” situation concerning access to HE for disadvantaged young people. As pointed out in a new CEPEO briefing note on this issue, the latest DfE widening participation statistics show that the proportion of free school meals (FSM) eligible school pupils progressing to HE continues to increase year after year. This is the good news.

The bad news is that overall, there does not appear to have been any narrowing of the gap in terms of FSM versus non-FSM eligible participation rates in HE. In fact, the percentage point gap in participation most recently reported by the DfE is the widest on record since they first began collecting the data 16 years ago. This is true whether we look at access to HE in general, or access to more selective ‘high-tariff’ universities. The percentage point gap in participation by FSM status might not be the only barometer we are interested in, but the lack of progress on this metric (and only minimal progress on reducing gaps in participation between those from different neighbourhoods) sits somewhat awkwardly alongside over £200 million of annual expenditure on this issue.

The importance of evaluation

We should not necessarily infer from these statistics that WP outreach has been unsuccessful. Whilst the proliferation of WP outreach has not coincided with a narrowing of the FSM participation gap, we should bear in mind the possibility that the FSM gap might be even wider still today were it not for the influence of WP outreach. But the fact that we can’t answer this question adequately is a problem: we still don’t know anywhere near enough about whether this significant investment in outreach has been well spent, or whether it could have been more successfully deployed in other ways. How can we change this?

First, we need to significantly improve our efforts to evaluate WP outreach initiatives effectively. Often, we don’t really know what works, because of the lack of experimental or quasi-experimental design in the implementation of WP programmes. We won’t be able to make significant improvements to the evidence base until this happens.

Second, we need to ensure that WP outreach programmes are targeted effectively and are recruiting the right people to take part. Recent research has evaluated the ‘Realising Opportunities’ outreach programme, which focuses on supporting disadvantaged young people to progress to more selective research-intensive universities. Programme participants were found to be much more likely to progress to these research-intensive universities when compared to predictions made by statistical modelling which took into consideration participants’ prior attainment and personal characteristics. Part of the success of the programme hinged on the fact that most participants would be unlikely to progress to research-intensive interventions in the absence of the intervention, leaving a big margin for improvement.

In contrast, some other programmes may not be so well targeted. For example, recent evaluations by TASO of online and in-person ‘summer school’ outreach activities found that the programmes were unlikely to change participant behaviour given that most participants were already on a pathway to HE even prior to taking part in the interventions. If outreach is to be successful, it has to avoid merely preaching to the converted.

Finally, we can improve the evaluation of WP outreach by making greater use of the rich education administrative data that we are lucky to have access to in England. The Realising Opportunities research used linked National Pupil Database (NPD) and the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) undergraduate record data, which remain underexploited in research in this area. The recent evaluation of Uni Connect mentioned above made use of the ‘HEAT’ (Higher Education Access Tracker) dataset which is a huge administrative record concerning participants in a large number of WP outreach programmes over many years. However, as this dataset was only available on its own, a comparison could only be made between those who had engaged more and less intensively with outreach programmes, with no comparison made with those who had not taken part in outreach at all.

If we can successfully link together datasets such as HEAT with the NPD and HESA records, we will have a more accurate view of the extent to which outreach participation makes a difference when all other observable characteristics of students are equal. If and when we are able to throw LEO earnings data into the mix too, we ought to be able to gauge the extent to which WP outreach programmes fulfil their ultimate purpose of supporting disadvantaged young people through the education system and into well paid careers. At this point we would have the clearest insight yet into which particular programmes offer the best return on investment.

By Professor Lindsey Macmillan and Professor Gill Wyness

We were having a discussion in our CEPEO team meeting yesterday about Spring Budget 2024 and the implications for education policy. As we outlined in our Twitter thread, there’s resounding disappointment across the education sector based on the announcements, with very little offered in terms of investment in education and skills. It’s no real surprise of course, given there is no money. Without any real prospect of economic growth this will be the story for the foreseeable future. And yet, and this is the catch-22 of it all, we cannot have growth without a focus on education and skills. In the words of John Maynard Keynes “We do nothing because we have not the money. But it is precisely because we do not do anything that we have not the money”.

Lip service is often paid to the importance of education and skills for growth, and we hear regularly about investments to support the development of skills in particular sectors – AI or green growth, for example. But while these skills are undoubtedly going to be important for future growth, it is the skills of the many, not the few, that are critical for productivity. And, as we know from a wealth of evidence about the effects of the pandemic, the challenge here is a daunting one. We can see from the most recent assessments at the end of primary school that the proportion of pupils reaching expected standards in reading, writing, and maths are down to 60%, levels not seen since 2016. In addition, inequalities have risen. The disadvantage gap is now higher than any point in the past decade.

As outlined in the Times Education Supplement piece this morning, there was a fully-costed education strategy put in place by Sir Kevan Collins, at the request of the government, in 2021 to help children who had missed school during the pandemic. This was based on the idea of three Ts. Teachers, Tutoring, and Time. Invest in the education workforce, invest in tutoring, and invest in extending the school day. Each one supported by rigorous evidence. And each one intertwined with the other to create complementarities to support education recovery. £15 billion was the ask, equivalent to £1,680 per pupil. This might sound like a lot of money but it was against a backdrop of estimates of the economic cost of learning loss reaching as high as £1.5 trillion, because of a lower-skilled workforce. In the end, only one tenth of this £15bn was offered up by the then Chancellor (and current PM), prompting Sir Kevan Collins’ resignation.

This is one example of the short-termism of government policy relating to growth: the reluctance to spend money now for the sake of future benefit. Those incomprehensibly large numbers of the economic costs of learning loss won’t fully hit now, but will instead permeate for decades to come. This means there is little incentive to spend the required money now; government won’t see the immediate benefits and get direct political gain in this election cycle.

Human Capital or Signalling?

A telling part of Sir Kevan Collins’ interview is that there was some kind of idea that the learning lost during the pandemic “would all just come out in the wash”. That children and young people who missed months of school would just catch up with little intervention required.

But this suggests that children can miraculously learn more in a year than they might otherwise have done with no further investment. That somehow teachers could be more productive after the pandemic than before – despite the myriad other challenges the pandemic created or worsened, not least significantly higher school absences. It also suggests that the government didn’t think that investment in the education system would have led to more learning.

But that goes against one of the fundamental theories of economics – human capital theory. The idea is that education increases the stock of human capital – skills – and higher skills fuel productivity and the economy, so investing in education is one of the most effective ways to drive sustainable economic growth. This is backed up by a wealth of evidence establishing a positive return to individuals and the wider economy from investing in education. Furthermore, education has been shown to have wider social benefits as more educated societies have higher levels of civic participation, better birth outcomes and reduced crime. We outline this in more detail in our briefing note “Does education raise people’s productivity or does it just signal their existing ability?”

There was also a lot of discussion at the time that learning loss didn’t matter anyway – because education is just there to act as a signal to employers about the relative abilities of different individuals, rather than something that directly improves their productivity. In other words, if someone has 3 A*s at A level, this tells an employer that they are a better worker than someone with 3 Bs, and it doesn’t matter how much knowledge or skills the person with 3 A*s actually has. But the evidence around this is much weaker as our briefing note describes.

Wasted talent

Linked to this is the belief that learning loss would be equally felt by all pupils. But again, the evidence (including from our own COSMO study) has shown the opposite. Learning loss is felt much more by pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds, and thus failing to invest in catch-up has compounded inequality. This inevitably results in wasted talent, further stifling economic growth, as outlined in our UKRI-funded project exploring the links between diversity, education and productivity. Evidence from the US shows that between 20-40% of economic growth over the last 50 years resulted from a better allocation of talent.

Failing to invest when pupils are young also has knock on effects. Education and skills are like building blocks. It is much easier to build an individuals’ skills if they have an existing foundation of basic skills to build upon. This in turn leads to higher returns on investment, as individuals become more and more skilled.

The catch-22 illusion?

This isn’t the first time education has been side-lined in recent budgets. Even the childcare announcement of 2023 was really about increasing labour force participation, rather than investing in early childhood education.

This short-term outlook is the government catch-22: we need growth to invest, but we can’t invest without growth. We need to break this cycle and understand that human capital is the fundamental underpinning of economic growth.

by Professor Gill Wyness and Professor Lindsey Macmillan

This weekend, we woke up to the news that reporters from the Sunday Times had discovered that some of the UK’s top universities are allowing international students into degree programmes with lower grades than UK students.

While at first glance, this sounds grossly unfair and very much against CEPEO’s mantra of equalising opportunities, others have pointed out that this isn’t ‘news’: these are ‘foundation year’ programmes that are designed to help students with lower grades get access degrees by taking a year-long course to prepare them for entry.

While the details around this are still a little murky (why does the international agent in the Sunday Times video promise guaranteed entry to second year? And why do these programmes appear to have 100% conversion rates onto degree programmes?), it has brought the perilous state of UK university finances to the forefront.

At the heart of this issue is the UK universities’ reliance on tuition fees from international students to balance the books.

The majority of universities’ teaching resources come from tuition fees, though they also receive some teaching grant from the government. However, the tuition fee cap has been frozen (apart from a small increase of £250) since 2012. This means that in real terms, it has been cut by around a fifth over the last ten years. Recent IFS analysis showed that per-student resources for teaching home students have declined by 16% since 2012.

Against this backdrop, international students are very attractive to universities. Their fees are unregulated, and universities typically set them at much higher levels than those for domestic students, meaning they provide huge amounts of much-needed income, particularly in tough times.

Crowding out or crowding in?

While it has long been the case that universities have used money from international students to subsidise UK students, it is reasonable to be concerned that increasing reliance on international students may result in ‘crowding out’, where talented UK students are denied a place on a course because that place has gone to a more lucrative, foreign student. But there is little evidence of this.

Research by CEPEO affiliate Richard Murphy, alongside Steve Machin, studied this question for the UK system between 1994-2011, a time of rapid internationalisation of the UK HE sector. Their study found no evidence that UK undergraduates were crowded out by international students. They also found evidence that postgraduates (whose numbers – like undergraduates under today’s system – are unrestricted) were ‘crowded in’ by foreign students. In other words, their work showed that foreign students provide much needed subsidies to the UK sector, and that without them, even fewer places would be available to UK students.

The evidence from this year also shows little evidence of crowding out; an interrogation of UCAS data from 2023 reveals that of students (under age 21) applying to all UK universities, 354,450 were from England, 28,010 were from Scotland, 15,560 were from Wales, and 14,650 from Northern Ireland. This compares to 82,760 from non-EU countries, and a further 18,810 from the EU. Thus, students from abroad make up about one fifth of total numbers.

This proportion has remained constant since 2018 – while the share of non-EU students has risen from 11% to 16% over the period, the share of EU students has fallen from 8% to 4%.  Thus, it seems that UK universities are simply replacing EU students (who, as a result of Brexit, have faced higher fees from 2021 and are no longer eligible for fee loans) with non-EU students.

Out of options?

While these numbers may provide some reassurance on the issue of UK students being frozen out of the sector, there is no doubt that more funding for domestic students is urgently needed – particularly given demand from UK students is likely to increase even further in the next few years due to increasing participation and the population surge currently working its way through the secondary education system.

Figure 1: Pupil numbers in education

 

Source: Figure 3.1b) from IFS Annual report on education spending

However, this is politically and economically very tricky. Raising the tuition fee cap would be deeply unpopular with the electorate, given the cost-of-living crisis. A recent report by Public First found that a sizeable portion of the population still support the idea of fee abolition, although this declines when the economics of paying for this are explained in more detail. But the vast majority of respondents were opposed to the idea of increasing tuition fees.

Figure 2: Polling on support for changes to tuition fees

Source: Public First report on Public Attitudes to tuition fees

The alternative – injecting cash into the sector through raising the government teaching grant – would be extremely expensive, so is also unlikely to fly at a time of significant fiscal constraints.

In short, there are very few options available to the government, meaning reliance on overseas students is set to continue for the foreseeable future.

By Gill Wyness, Lindsey Macmillan, and Jake Anders

Today marks the first ‘true’ A level and Vocational and Technical Qualifications (VTQs) exam results since the more innocent days of 2019. Although pupils sat exams in 2022, their results were adjusted by Ofqual’s “glide path” which aimed to move results gradually back to pre-pandemic exam grading following the grade inflation of 2020 and 2021. So, a comparison of todays’ results versus 2019 should provide information about the extent of learning loss experienced during the pandemic. And the results present a bleak picture for inequality in England.

Back to the future?

Overall, the proportion of pupils awarded a C or above at A level is more or less back to 2019 levels. This is perhaps grounds for optimism; these students have had a very different learning experience compared to their peers in 2019. They experienced a global pandemic, and severe disruption to their schooling in critical years – as Figure 1 shows. In addition, this cohort did not sit GCSE exams, so lack that crucial experience of performing under pressure that previous cohorts have had.

Figure 1: Timeline of the Class of 2023

However, there is much less cause for optimism when we look at inequalities in the results. At the moment, these are only available across school types, and regions.

Mind the gap

Looking first at inequalities by school type, the gap between academies and independent schools has widened since 2019. The proportion awarded a C or above is down slightly in academies (75.4% in 2023 versus 75.7% in 2019) whilst it is up in independent schools (89% versus 88%). This represents a 1.3 percentage point increase in the state-independent gap, which now stands at 13.6 percentage points. For the top grades (A and above), the independent-state gap has widened slightly more, to 1.4 percentage points.

We already know that students from these different school types had very different schooling and learning experiences during the pandemic. Figure 2, from CEPEO’s COSMO Study, highlights the disparity in learning provision experienced by students from different school types during the pandemic. The disparities in A level performance that we see today are yet more confirmation that these students did not experience the disruption of the pandemic equally.

Figure 2: Provision of live online lessons, by school characteristics, lockdown 1 and 3

There are also notable inequalities across region. In particular, (and as was the case last year), London and the South East continue to pull away from all other regions with the largest increase in the proportion achieving A/A* since 2019, and some of the smallest declines relative to last year’s cohort. Meanwhile, the North East and Yorkshire and Humber are the only regions with a lower proportion achieving A/A* compared to 2019.

Competitor advantage

As discussed, it is harder to make comparisons between today’s results and last years, because 2022 results were adjusted by Ofqual’s glide path. However, for pupils receiving their results today, the 2022 cohort are their closest competitors in terms of higher education (gap year students) and more crucially the labour market, so for them, the comparison really matters.

Overall, results are down from 2022; this isn’t surprising and is part of the glide-path strategy. However, inequalities here are concerning; for C or above, the academy-private gap is up 3.8 ppts compared to 2022.

Among the highest attainers (A/A*), the story is more nuanced. Compared to last year’s cohort the state-private gap has narrowed (1ppt). Remember private schools had far more grade inflation at the top of the distribution when exams were switched to Teacher Assessed Grades in 2021, as figure 3 clearly shows. That they have failed to maintain this stark advantage among top grades suggests some of the record grades awarded over the pandemic were likely down to teacher ‘optimism’. But as mentioned above, the gap among high attainers is up since 2019, therefore also reflecting the better quality of learning experienced by private school students during the lockdowns.

Figure 3: Teacher ‘optimism’ across school types

Subjective scrutiny

Comparing subjects that are more or less objective to assess can also tell us something about how meaningful the results of 2020 and 2021 might be. For example, if we compare results for maths – arguably an easier subject for teachers to grade in their assessments – with drama, we see just how problematic the teacher predicted/assessed grades of 2020 and 2021 were.

 

Figure 4: Grades by maths and drama

The forgotten 378,000

Of course today isn’t just about A levels – a sizeable proportion of the Class of 2023 – over 378,000 students – took Level 3 vocational and technical qualifications. There is far less data available on these qualifications to provide any real depth of analysis – an issue in itself.

Following a similar pattern to A levels, higher attainment grades for level 3 qualifications are: – up relative to 2019 (at distinction or above), and down relative to 2022 (at merit or above)

Many have pointed out the worrying dropout rates of those taking T levels (the new, technical-level qualification which were launched in 2020) – although it’s important to note that these currently make up only a tiny fraction of vocational and technical qualifications. Of those who did complete, 90% passed with girls outperforming boys at higher levels.

Inequalities persist

In summary then, today’s results present a mixed picture for young people in England. On the one hand, results are back to the pre-Covid heyday, but inequalities are wider, and this again emphasises the inequalities in experiences during the pandemic. These will likely persist well into the labour market – a feature that our COSMO study will track well into the future. Look out for more bleak news to come. This should be a timely reminder to those making education spending decisions in Whitehall for future cohorts.