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Value Yes, Chain No: Warnings Beyond Linearity
By Amanda Gallant, on 21 January 2026
By: Ilan Kelman, Carina Fearnley, Maryam Rokhideh
The value chain of warnings is frequently adopted to represent warning systems. It tends to present a warning as a series of nodes or components, connected by information flow going both ways in order to produce a chain.
One characterisation of this ‘warning value chain’ becomes ‘end-to-end’, explicitly starting at one end with Earth observations; going through phases including analysis, interpretation, and communication; and then finishing at the other end with people and society responding to the information they receive.
Theorising and observing warnings and warning systems from around the world reveals the value and effectiveness of warnings when not viewed as a linear sequence or chain. Instead, all nodes, stages, components, and inputs of a full and effective warning system continually interact and intersect, feeding back into each other.
This approach breaks down silos such as between Earth observation scientists and emergency managers as well as between weather forecasters and behavioural scientists. It breaks through the chain, producing inclusive warnings which do not assume (and which do not require) specific start and finish points.
It offers a suite of options for communicating probabilities and uncertainties, while supporting engagement and accessibility across languages, cultures, and abilities. A repertoire of visuals, sounds, and texts through different communication mediums and modes can be tailored to specific audiences, achieving ‘warnings for all’.
Then, warnings and warning systems, as societal processes which are part of people’s typical, daily lives, are end-to-end-to-end-to-end… and node-to-node-to-node-to-node…all connected and interacting. The value of warnings is in the system’s non-linearity.