Walking towards Democratic Backsliding? Chile at a Crossroads 

In this post, Javiera Arce Riffo, a PhD Student at the UCL Institute of the Americas, discusses the recent Chilean elections. 

Walking towards Democratic Backsliding? Chile at a Crossroads 

Javiera Arce Riffo 

On Sunday, 14 December 2025, the far-right candidate José Antonio Kast won the Chilean presidential election. The result was not a surprise to the Chilean public, as most opinion polls had predicted it. Still, this pendular swing in Chilean politics caused alarm in some external observers. As I discuss below, the results of the recent elections are a reflection of broader external factors and internal dynamics. 

Firstly, it is no novelty that we are living through a global wave of democratic backsliding. In recent years, democracies from across the Americas, such as Argentina, Brazil and the United States, have elected presidents who have put to the test the stability of democratic institutions. Such leaders often achieve power through electoral competition: they respect the formal rules of the game to gain office only to then begin a gradual process of institutional weakening—ultimately leading to democratic erosion.  

In seeking to explain the electoral success of leaders who challenge democratic institutions, observers point to the widespread perception that democracy has not responded effectively to the people’s demands for welfare or addressed society’s needs. They also note that such leaders exploit other factors, such as anxieties about migration and internal security. For example, in some contexts, far-right candidates and parties promote the crude simplification that migrants are stealing jobs, rather than engaging with how the economic system has enriched the wealthy at the expense of broader societal precariousness. They capture the attention and support of those who feel that economic growth and democracy have failed them. 

Citizens cannot always perceive the degradation of democratic institutions that such leaders provoke. Processes of democratic backsliding are generally gradual and spread across different institutions, and manifest through the strengthening of executive power, the delegitimisation of political opposition, and the suppression of a free press. Furthermore, such leaders often promote a return to so-called traditional values, which translates to a reversal of rights for women and diverse communities. Deploying discourses of state efficiency, they also begin to make deep cuts to social expenditures. Of course, far-right leaders are not alone in using such strategies though they have resorted to them frequently in recent years in various contexts.  

In Chile, this erosion is likely to be selective rather than abrupt, affecting key counterweights like judicial independence while circumventing the National Congress by using decree laws. This intent was signalled by Kast himself, not in his campaign manifesto, but in various public forums, when he asserted that “Congress is not as relevant as the people might imagine.” (Kast apuesta a gobernar con decretos: “El Congreso no es tan relevante como se imaginan”,2025). Given his historical campaign manifestos and past policy proposals, such assertions raise significant concerns. While he has attempted to focus his current campaign on specific actions, we cannot ignore his recent history. There is a risk of potential curbs to press freedom, gender and minority rights, university autonomy, and an emboldening of his already contemptuous view of academic knowledge and science once he takes power. 

Electoral results are also a reflection of internal political dynamics. For many years now, Chile has been suffering a convulsed scenario that has shattered its once-stable image. Kast’s election follows a violent social uprising in 2019, which expressed unresolved democratic demands for material goods and social protection, whose institutional frustration deepened political disillusionment, as reflected in the  search for alternatives from outside the political system.It also comes after two failed attempts to replace Pinochet’s Constitution in 2022 and 2023. Chileans rejected the first proposed text because they saw it as too radically left-wing, promising profound institutional, economic, and political changes. The second process was dominated by Kast’s own party, which drafted a radical conservative-neoliberal proposal that citizens also overwhelmingly rejected. Kast’s electoral success this year comes four years after his defeat in 2021 to the current progressive government of Gabriel Boric, elected with a substantial majority.  

Boric promised profound transformations. Yet, the administration was hobbled by a series of strategic missteps: the immediate pursuit of structural reforms, bypassing the customary political honeymoon; strained relations with coalition partners; and assertions of moral superiority. Critically, the administration also paid little attention to the security agenda despite rising crime rates.  Boric’s flagship structural reform, the pension system, did not challenge the neoliberal framework but instead reinforced the individual capitalisation model of the Pension Fund Administrators (AFPs), which, combined with institutional limitations and a lack of knowledge of the state, crystallised in a deficient management of the state, which led to a failure to meet high expectations. Though its functioning improved after the second year, the public perception of inefficiency remained. New problems, including rising crime rates and uncontrolled migration, further defined the period. These shortcomings were also shaped by a fragmented Congress, strong veto players, and a constitutional framework resistant to rapid transformation.  

By exploiting fear as a political weapon, Kast has reached the presidency. His project goes beyond electoral rhetoric, combining moral conservatism, a restrictive view of rights, and an expanded role for security forces. His projectresonates with sectors demanding order while challenging Chile’s pluralistic democratic foundations. Who will be part of his government and what their true priorities will be, given the profound social demands and the institutional constraints he faces, remains to be seen. Whether his election marks a decisive turn towards institutional weakening and democratic erosion will become clear in the following months.

Javiera Arce Riffo holds a B.A. in Government from the Universidad de Chile and a Master’s degree in Political Science from the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. She is currently a PhD student at the Institute of the Americas, University College London and a researcher at the Centro de Estudios para la Gestión Pública (CEGEP) at the Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile. Her research focuses on comparative politics in Latin America.