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27 March 2025

By Sandra Leaton Gray

Education is at a turning point, shaped by rapid technological advancement, climate change, demographic shifts and evolving labour market demands. As policymakers respond to these challenges, the need for long-term strategic thinking has never been more pressing.

The increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and digital learning tools is reshaping pedagogical approaches and raising questions about the role of human teachers, ethical AI governance and the potential for algorithmic bias in assessment and decision-making. Climate change is prompting a re-evaluation of sustainable school infrastructure, climate literacy in curricula and the role of education in fostering resilience. Meanwhile, demographic changes, such as ageing populations, migration patterns and shifts in student diversity demand more inclusive and flexible education systems. This is as labour market transformations driven by automation and the knowledge economy necessitate a rethinking of skills development, lifelong learning and vocational training pathways to ensure future generations remain adaptable and competitive in an increasingly uncertain world. The question is, when faced with so much change all at once, how do we make sense of it all?

In response, a major EU foresight study, supported by UCL IOE, explored four possible futures for European schools by 2040. Developed using horizon scanning, Delphi analysis and expert consultations with over 80 European Commission officials, policymakers and education specialists, the study offers a structured way to think about the uncertain future of schooling.

Four alternative futures for education

The study presents four scenarios, structured around two critical dimensions: the level of standardisation versus flexibility in education, and whether society leans towards collaboration or competition.

Regulated Consensus (Standardised & Collaborative)

Governments work together to ensure equality in education, using centralised curricula, harmonised assessments and standardised teaching models. While this ensures consistency and accessibility, it also limits local innovation and the ability of schools to adapt to rapidly changing social and economic conditions.

Creative Collective (Flexible & Collaborative)

Schools become hubs of personalised learning, interdisciplinary teaching and AI-assisted education. Teachers act as facilitators of learning, guiding students through adaptive pathways designed to develop critical thinking and creativity. Networks of schools share resources and best practices. This scenario is widely seen as the most desirable, balancing equity, innovation and autonomy.

Measured Results (Standardised & Competitive)

Education systems prioritise performance metrics, league tables and AI-driven progress tracking. Standardisation ensures accountability, but the intense focus on measurable outcomes often comes at the expense of creativity and holistic learning. In this model, AI and data analytics play a major role in assessing and monitoring students, leading to concerns about surveillance, algorithmic bias and equity.

Market of Learners (Flexible & Competitive)

Education operates as a fully privatised, market-driven system, with edtech companies, private providers and alternative learning pathways competing for students. While this model allows for greater personalisation and innovation, it also risks deepening inequalities, as access to high-quality education depends on familial resources and digital literacy.

How the foresight study is being used in policy and research

Since its publication, the study has gained traction among European policymakers, researchers and school leaders, providing a useful framework for assessing risks and opportunities in education systems. Several key developments highlight its growing influence:

European Commission policy dialogues

The scenario framework has been referenced in consultations on digital education policy, particularly regarding AI-driven assessments and the standardisation of learning outcomes across the EU. Policymakers are using the study to explore how AI can support learning without reinforcing existing inequalities.

School and curriculum innovation projects

Some experimental school networks are actively piloting aspects of the Creative Collective scenario, integrating AI-assisted learning, project-based curricula and interdisciplinary approaches. This is particularly evident in the Nordic countries and parts of Western Europe, where schools are trialling teacher-facilitated, student-led learning models.

National education strategies

Countries such as Germany, Finland and the Netherlands have drawn on the study’s insights to evaluate whether their education policies are overly rigid or whether greater flexibility and collaboration could better prepare schools for future challenges. Some regions are using the framework to balance autonomy and accountability in school governance.

Teacher workforce planning

The study accurately predicted worsening teacher shortages across Europe, leading to debates on workload, digital support for teaching and the role of AI. Some countries are revisiting policies on teacher recruitment and retention, using insights to assess how future workforce demands may evolve.

Rethinking assessment models

As concerns grow around the impact of AI-driven grading, predictive analytics and data surveillance, the study has been used in discussions about the ethical use of AI in education. Some policymakers are questioning whether a purely standardised model of AI-driven assessment (as in the Measured Results scenario) is desirable, or whether more human-centred approaches should remain central to evaluation and learning.

The need for future-focused policy

This foresight study builds on UCL’s longstanding role in shaping European education policy. To pick out just a few examples, there is the EDUCATE project, which laid the groundwork for edtech collaboration across Europe, plus wide-ranging reviews on school choice policies in Europe, the secondary curriculum in European Schools, and multilingual and international education.

The scenarios outlined in the foresight study pose pressing questions for policymakers. How can digital transformation enhance learning rather than replace teachers? How do we foster innovation while guaranteeing equity? How can we develop future-ready educators who can navigate these shifts? At IOE, we remain committed to addressing these challenges. This study is not simply about predicting the future, it is about shaping it in ways that ensure education across Europe remains both innovative and equitable.